Archive for Pending Home Sales
Pending Home Sales Soar In February, As Expected. Buyers Are Everywhere.
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As expected, the Pending Home Sales shot higher in February, boosted by the federal home buyer tax credit’s April 30 deadline.
Versus the month prior, February’s index rose 8 percent but remains well off the highs set last October.
For today’s home buyers and seller, the Pending Home Sales Index is an important measurement. This is because a “pending home” is a property that is under contract to sell, but not yet closed.
According to the National Association of Realtors®, 80% of homes under contract close within 60 days, historically. Therefore, a higher Pending Sales figure in February projects that April’s Existing Home Sales will be higher, too.
If you’re a Fishers home buyer today, no doubt you’ve noticed the extra market activity.
On right-priced homes, multiple offer situations are more common; sales prices are settling closer to listing price; Days on market is falling. These are the signs of a buyer-heavy market. It drives home supplies down and home prices up.
It’s a good time to be a seller, in other words. Especially as buyer activity looks poised to peak.
When the home buyer credit faced its last expiration in November 2009, we saw a pattern of buyers rushing to beat the deadline. There’s no reason to expect that won’t happen again. And as it does, Pending Home Sales should continue to climb. Average home sale prices should rise.
Home buyers may find it smart to go under contract sooner rather than later. Pending Home Sales is a warning shot. Higher home sales figures are ahead.
Pending Home Sales Drag In January, But Should Rebound For Spring
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Fewer homes went under contract in January as the housing market continues to limp through the winter months.
According to the National Association of Realtors®, the Pending Home Sales Index fell to its lowest level in 3 quarters this January. By contrast, in October 2009, the index had touched a 3-year high.
The Pending Home Sales Index measures the number of homes that have gone under contract to sell, but have yet to close nationwide. It’s compiled using data from more than 100 regional listing services and 60-plus brokerages — the sample set encompasses 20 percent of all home resales in a given month.
Economists have come to rely on the Pending Home Sales Index because of its high correlation to actual home sales. 80% of all home marked “pending” close within 60 days. Many of the rest close within 120.
Therefore, when we see Pending Home Sales show weakness like it did in January, we can infer that home resales will remain weak through the spring.
But will they really?
- Fewer sales should drag down home prices, bringing more buyers into the market
- Mortgage rates are still very low, but are poised to rise in just a few weeks
- The home buyer tax credit requires buyers to be in contract by April 30, 2010
In other words, there’s a confluence of factors that could lead to a rush of sales in Fishers and around the country over the next two months, reversing the housing market’s recent momentum.
Simple Real Estate Definitions: Shadow Inventory
Posted by: | Comments“Shadow inventory” is created when the seller of a set of items wants to control the entry of those items on to the marketplace in order to maximize the price. The seller sacrifices time (i.e. stretching sales out into the future) in order to receive a higher amount upfront. The bulk of the items being sold are held back for future sale.
Sometimes the technique is used to create urgency, as in the release of residential lots through multiple phases in a builder’s subdivison.
In the current real estate environment, it is being used to hold the line on property values. Banks that have taken back properties through foreclosure have an excessive amount of vacant homes on their books. Advertising these for sale all at once would dramatically increase supply and drive the prices down; leading to further foreclosure activity due to depressed prices. Even non-foreclosure sales would be negatively effected.
Banks and their REO departments (stands for Real Estate Owned which is bank-speak for “foreclosure inventory”) realize that driving prices down is not a good thing when you are trying to sell your assets to recoup your losses.
I have heard the term shadow inventory used recently in two contexts: bank foreclosure inventory and sellers who are waiting to put their homes on the market until conditions are more favorable.
In the Indianapolis, Marion County market in 2009, just over one-third of a Realtor transactions were sales of foreclosed homes. That number is likely to remain high as banks slowly divest themselves of the shadow inventory.
Home Values Rose In November 2009 By Another 0.7 Percent
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Reporting on a two-month lag, the government said home values rose 0.7 percent in November.
National home prices are at their highest point since February 2009.
But before we look too much into the FHFA’s Home Price Index, it’s important that we’re cognizant of its shortcomings; the most important of which is its lack of real-time reporting.
According to the National Association of Realtors™, 80% of purchases close within 60 days. As a result, because of its two-month delay, the Home Price Index report actually trails today’s market data by an entire sales cycle.
This is one reason why home values appear to be rising even while new data shows that both Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales fell flat last month. The home valuation report is using data from November; the sales reports are using data from December.
The Home Price Index is a trailing indicator and next month, as the Spring Market gets underway, the government will be reporting data from the holidays.
The same is true for the Case-Shiller Index. It, too, operates on a 2-month lag.
All of that said, however, long-term trends do matter in housing and the Home Price Index has shown consistent improvement over the last 10 months. In many markets, home sales are up, home supplies are down, and values have increased. This trend should continue into the early part of 2010, at least.
If you’re wondering whether now is a good time to buy a home in Indianapolis , consider low prices, cheap mortgages and an available tax credit as three good incentives. By May, none of them will likely be available.
Home Buyers Get A Green Light : Pending Home Sales Plunge In November
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Just one month after touching a 3-year high, the National Association of Realtors® Pending Home Sales index plunged in November. A “pending” home sale is a home that is under contract to sell, but has yet to close.
The 16 percent drop marks the first retreat in Pending Home Sales since January of last year.
The weak Pending Home Sales data is an indication that Existing Home Sales data will be soft this month. This is because, historically, 80 percent of Pending Home Sales convert to “closed sales” within 60 days, and most of the rest close within 120.
With Pending Home Sales down, the Meridian Kessler housing market should lose some of its momentum. For today’s home buyers, this kind of slack can represent a terrific opportunity.
Home prices are a function of supply and demand; of buyers and sellers. When buyers outnumber sellers, competition leads to bidding wars, ultimately, and higher home prices overall. The imbalance can also create a sense of urgency that results in over-paying for a home.
When buyers are sparse, on the other hand, the psychology of real estate shifts.
Home sellers are keenly aware of foot traffic and requests for second and third showings. Without buyers, their homes can’t sell. They also note a lack of general feedback from the market.
It’s at this point that seller fear can creep in and it becomes a buyer’s best time to buy.
Based on November’s Pending Home Sales data, it’s clear that home sellers are in abundance right now. Home buyers have leverage.
It may not last.
With mortgage rates easing lower this week, the federal home buyer tax credit still in effect, and the Holiday Season officially over, buyers are getting back to business in Fishers and everywhere.
Plus, with the tax credit deadline of April 30, 2010 fast approaching, buyer activity should increase over the next 4-6 weeks.
The market looks ripe for a buy but don’t rush it. Take your time and bid right. But when you’re ready, be ready — once the market momentum shifts back to sellers, you might lose all that leverage you built up through the winter.
